Patriot Games: The Conservative Majority

So through the last 35 days of Canada's 41st election, pollsters were in a frenzy to release the most accurate seat projections they could. They polled citizens endlessly hoping to be the most accurate pollster in the nation.

And yet, with the exception of an occasional blip, almost no poll predicted a Conservative majority government.

So how did it happen?

The Conservative party captured about 40% of the votes cast in this election. That was up about 5% from the 2008 election. But that extra 5% in vote secured an additional 24 seats for the party, leap-frogging them past the magic 155 seat count which is required by any ruling party to obtain the majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Ontario was the winning battle ground for the Conservative party. Throughout the election Campaign, the numbers from Ontario, the most seat-rich province in the country polled the Conservatives at a reasonable lead over their rivals. EKOS for example, suggested that the Conservatives were trending about 39% support in Ontario, while both the NDP and Liberal party were tied at 26%.

With these numbers, it would be reasonable to expect that the Conservatives would win 42 of the 106 seats up for grabs in Ontario (roughly 40% of total seats in the province), and the Liberals and NDP would split the remaining 64 seats between them.

But, with Canada's First-Past-The-Post system, this was not the case. The Conservatives actually won 73 seats in Ontario (69% of the seats). Total vote count or "Popular Vote" does not really count in Canada. All that matters is that 1 candidate in each riding gets more votes than any one single competitor.

A great example of how this works is in the Bramlea-Gore-Malton riding in the Greater Toronto Area. In this riding, the Conservative Candidate won the seat by securing 19,907 votes. The NDP candidate in this riding was close behind with 19,369 votes, and the Liberal candidate came in at a close third with 16,401 votes. Other parties running in this riding tied up the remaining 2,119 votes.

Since the Conservative candidate came ahead of any other single rival with 19,907 votes, he wins the seat even though 37,889 constituents did not vote for the Conservative candidate. This phenomenon, known as "vote splitting" occurred in dozens of ridings in Ontario, giving the Conservative Party an additional 31 seats in the province, and thus, securing them a majority government.

This is not the first time this has occurred in a Canadian election. It also allowed Jean Chretien to form a Liberal majority government in the 1990s.

While vote splitting can create a stable government for a 4 year term by allowing 1 party to have a majority government, it often does not sit well with the public. This is because although 40% of Canadians voted for the Conservative party, 60% did not, yet more than 50% of Canadians are now represented by a Conservative Member of Parliament.

In the past when vote splitting has occurred resulting in a majority government, it often brings about calls from the people demanding the electoral system be changed to provide proportional representation. More often than not these calls go unaddressed by government. However this year may be different, as this phenomenon has never occurred immediately after 3 successive minority governments. It will be interesting to see where this will lead our electoral system over the next 5 - 10 years.