Patriot Games: The Conservative Majority

So through the last 35 days of Canada's 41st election, pollsters were in a frenzy to release the most accurate seat projections they could. They polled citizens endlessly hoping to be the most accurate pollster in the nation.

And yet, with the exception of an occasional blip, almost no poll predicted a Conservative majority government.

So how did it happen?

The Conservative party captured about 40% of the votes cast in this election. That was up about 5% from the 2008 election. But that extra 5% in vote secured an additional 24 seats for the party, leap-frogging them past the magic 155 seat count which is required by any ruling party to obtain the majority of seats in the House of Commons.

Ontario was the winning battle ground for the Conservative party. Throughout the election Campaign, the numbers from Ontario, the most seat-rich province in the country polled the Conservatives at a reasonable lead over their rivals. EKOS for example, suggested that the Conservatives were trending about 39% support in Ontario, while both the NDP and Liberal party were tied at 26%.

With these numbers, it would be reasonable to expect that the Conservatives would win 42 of the 106 seats up for grabs in Ontario (roughly 40% of total seats in the province), and the Liberals and NDP would split the remaining 64 seats between them.

But, with Canada's First-Past-The-Post system, this was not the case. The Conservatives actually won 73 seats in Ontario (69% of the seats). Total vote count or "Popular Vote" does not really count in Canada. All that matters is that 1 candidate in each riding gets more votes than any one single competitor.

A great example of how this works is in the Bramlea-Gore-Malton riding in the Greater Toronto Area. In this riding, the Conservative Candidate won the seat by securing 19,907 votes. The NDP candidate in this riding was close behind with 19,369 votes, and the Liberal candidate came in at a close third with 16,401 votes. Other parties running in this riding tied up the remaining 2,119 votes.

Since the Conservative candidate came ahead of any other single rival with 19,907 votes, he wins the seat even though 37,889 constituents did not vote for the Conservative candidate. This phenomenon, known as "vote splitting" occurred in dozens of ridings in Ontario, giving the Conservative Party an additional 31 seats in the province, and thus, securing them a majority government.

This is not the first time this has occurred in a Canadian election. It also allowed Jean Chretien to form a Liberal majority government in the 1990s.

While vote splitting can create a stable government for a 4 year term by allowing 1 party to have a majority government, it often does not sit well with the public. This is because although 40% of Canadians voted for the Conservative party, 60% did not, yet more than 50% of Canadians are now represented by a Conservative Member of Parliament.

In the past when vote splitting has occurred resulting in a majority government, it often brings about calls from the people demanding the electoral system be changed to provide proportional representation. More often than not these calls go unaddressed by government. However this year may be different, as this phenomenon has never occurred immediately after 3 successive minority governments. It will be interesting to see where this will lead our electoral system over the next 5 - 10 years.

Patriot Games: The Dust Settles

As the dust settles from Canada's 41st Election Campaign last night, political pundits ponder the strange events, and how it all happened.

The big prize went to Conservative leader Stephen Harper, who finally got his long-coveted Majority Government. The Conservatives took 167 seats of the 308 available in the House of Commons.

The NDP's Jack Layton, however, celebrated a huge victory of his own last night. The NDP went into the election with a mere 38 seats (quite respectable, considering the party's highest seat count prior to 2011 was 43). By the end of the vote counting, the NDP had decimated the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal party to end up as the official opposition with 102 seats under their belt. Jack is reportedly already measuring curtains for his move into the Official Opposition leader's new home at Stornoway.

It is likely today that (former) Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff is packing his things, as he has been given an eviction notice to vacate Stornoway as soon as possible. Both Ignatieff and Bloc Quebecois leaders Gilles Duceppe were defeated in their own ridings last night, and will be in the unemployment office this morning.

All of this occurred as a small ray of hope beamed down onto the Vancouver Island riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, where Elizabeth May triumphed in becoming the first Green Party member ever elected to Parliament.

Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of how these events unfolded, and how this drastically new Parliament will or will not change Canada for the next 4 years.

Patriot Games: Ekos Predicts Elizabeth May Will Win

Elizabeth May: The Green Wild Card

Over the last two weeks, Canada has watched the 2011 Federal Election campaign unfold into the most dramatic bout of politics in the last two decades.

The most prevalent topic du jour has of course been the meteoric rise of the NDP in nearly all regions of Canada with the exception of Ontario and Alberta. In fact, as of May 1st, the eve of the election, EKOS pollsters show the NDP have now taken the lead in BC, which has staunchly been a conservative base for the bulk of the last two elections.

But another game changer has burst onto the scene tonight: Elizabeth May. EKOS predicts the Green Party will indeed earn their first ever seat in the house of commons tomorrow. Granted, the pollsters did not specify May's riding specifically, but realistically she is the only candidate high-profile enough to be considered a likely winner.

True, it is only 1 seat of the 308 up for grabs in Parliament. But the Greens will now have a high profile member in parliament, and more importantly, getting regular face time on TV throughout the next sitting of Parliament. Moreover, in the next election (god forbid it be any time soon), Canada's Media Consortium will have no legal leg to stand on to prevent May from getting into the televised leadership debates.

The question looms however, should we somehow end up with an NDP-Liberal coalition government that lasts for a year or two after the votes are counted tomorrow, how will May impact the left of centre vote in the next election? It's hard to imagine that the NDP's Jack Layton and Elizabeth May will become fast friends, as their parties tend to share a lot of the same voters.

If you think this election has been full of frothy excitement, I think we may be in for a real wild time the next go around.

All eyes will be on BC tomorrow night as the votes are counted. The NDP and the Conservatives are neck and neck throughout the nation, and British Columbians stand to be the King Makers in Election 41. If EKOS is wrong, and May loses her riding, the conservatives will retain an all important seat. If EKOS is correct and May wins, Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn will be out of a job, the Conservatives lose a seat they desperately need, and Jack Layton will no doubt be hatching some sort of plan to nip the Green Party in the bud.

More info to come.