Patriot Games: Ekos Predicts Elizabeth May Will Win

Elizabeth May: The Green Wild Card

Over the last two weeks, Canada has watched the 2011 Federal Election campaign unfold into the most dramatic bout of politics in the last two decades.

The most prevalent topic du jour has of course been the meteoric rise of the NDP in nearly all regions of Canada with the exception of Ontario and Alberta. In fact, as of May 1st, the eve of the election, EKOS pollsters show the NDP have now taken the lead in BC, which has staunchly been a conservative base for the bulk of the last two elections.

But another game changer has burst onto the scene tonight: Elizabeth May. EKOS predicts the Green Party will indeed earn their first ever seat in the house of commons tomorrow. Granted, the pollsters did not specify May's riding specifically, but realistically she is the only candidate high-profile enough to be considered a likely winner.

True, it is only 1 seat of the 308 up for grabs in Parliament. But the Greens will now have a high profile member in parliament, and more importantly, getting regular face time on TV throughout the next sitting of Parliament. Moreover, in the next election (god forbid it be any time soon), Canada's Media Consortium will have no legal leg to stand on to prevent May from getting into the televised leadership debates.

The question looms however, should we somehow end up with an NDP-Liberal coalition government that lasts for a year or two after the votes are counted tomorrow, how will May impact the left of centre vote in the next election? It's hard to imagine that the NDP's Jack Layton and Elizabeth May will become fast friends, as their parties tend to share a lot of the same voters.

If you think this election has been full of frothy excitement, I think we may be in for a real wild time the next go around.

All eyes will be on BC tomorrow night as the votes are counted. The NDP and the Conservatives are neck and neck throughout the nation, and British Columbians stand to be the King Makers in Election 41. If EKOS is wrong, and May loses her riding, the conservatives will retain an all important seat. If EKOS is correct and May wins, Conservative incumbent Gary Lunn will be out of a job, the Conservatives lose a seat they desperately need, and Jack Layton will no doubt be hatching some sort of plan to nip the Green Party in the bud.

More info to come.

Elizabeth May Is Dismayed

Elizabeth May

Elizabeth May and her Green Party were dealt a severe blow by Federal Court judge Marc Nadon yesterday, as he refused to make an emergency ruling on May's complaint of being shut out of the televised electoral debates next week.

Nadon agreed with the Television Consortium's argument that due to the short amount of time to the scheduled debates that a decision could not be made so quickly while still providing due diligence in examining both parties arguments.

This could be a death strike to May's attempt at getting elected this year, as her inclusion in the debates in 2008 gave her party a significant boost in recognition and popularity, but thus far this year has struggled to maintain as much media attention.

May says she is still not counting herself out, as she and her lawyer Peter Rosenthal are currently examining any other potential legal avenues to force the courts to hear the case immediately.

Although the courts will likely not make a decision until it is too late for this election, it is likely that they will side with at least some of the Green Party's arguments, and perhaps force the Media Consortium to establish firm and set criteria for who should be included in the debates in the future.

In the mean time, May continues to campaign hard in her riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, rather than focusing on a cross country tour as the party leader like she did in the last election. She hopes to unseat Conservative Incumbent Gary Lunn.